The Real Challenge for BJP

We are witnessing Congress at crossroads. They are a party which is in dire need of reinvention. Current leadership has got to go. From the looks of it, 2014 elections are going to mirror Congress’ performance of the state elections of November 2013. They are not a challenge to BJP. We are also witnessing an implosion of the AAP. Kejriwal and his cronies stand exposed as garden variety Communists who are stuck in the student union mode. They have bitten the hand that feeds them (Indian media), suckered by Congress, disillusioned their middle class supporters by their vigilantism (word that should be used is “Gunda-gardi”). Now it seems that the NRIs have turned the money spigot off. They are also not going to be a threat to the BJP.

The third front which is also a media creation like AAP and Nitish Kumar seems like a non-starter. Jayalalitha who was a supporter of Non-conversions laws has since joined up with Islamist parties and now CPI (M). This is a person who attended Modi’s inauguration has made a radical turnaround. Bereft of any kind of coherent ideology, she is nursing dreams of the PM chair. She and other regional party leaders are going to meet under the auspices of CPI (M) to form the third front. Apparently these people learn nothing from history and are going to repeat it. 2004 Lok Sabha was the best chance for the third front when the left front had 64 seats and Mulayam’s SP had 36 seats. Despite Harkishan Singh Surjit’s best attempts at reconciliation, they could not agree on who should become the CM. Now they have multiple leaders in their late sixties who look upon this election as their last chance for PM’ship. NO way are these guys going to agree on who should lead the third front.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Narendra Modi is a rare politician; the like world rarely gets to see. Yes, the WORLD. In an election which is being held in a disparate country like ours with over 700 million voters, to have such a sway over the voters speaks for his political genius. His is an inspiring speaker with the organizational capabilities and decision making ability of a successful army commander. His success as a three term CM who has captured the imagination of the Indian voter has already cemented his legacy whether he wins or not. Now the real question here – Why would he not win despite of all these advantages? My theory is as follows.

Complacency, arrogance and low voter turnout are going to defeat the BJP and stop Modi. We have so many polls coming out indicating the BJP as the front runner with 220 or so seats. With that many seats and opportunist politicians of other parties Modi will be able to form the government. Advani and his group ignored key states in the past. They assumed the support of BJD, AIDMK et.al. and let BJP become non-factors in those states. They assumed that with 150 to 180 seats and support of these vultures they will be able to form the government. This sort of complacency will lead to an inherently unstable government, susceptible to blackmail by unscrupulous partners. Modi will never be able to implement his pro-growth agenda.

I do not trust any of these polls. It is not possible to get a statistically viable sample of the voter base in India. Moreover, with the kind of literacy and attitudes that we have in our country it is very hard to get nuanced answer (Do you strongly agree or somewhat agree kind of questions). And that is just one of the problems. The best we can get is an idea about the way the voter is leaning. It is also hard to trust any of the pollsters given the Congress’ and the leftist influence. Therefore one needs to be very suspicious of the projected number of seats because that can make the foot soldiers arrogant and stop them from doing their best. I am not worried about Modi because he seems to be going from strength to strength with every speech. He is fighting for every seat which is what every one of us should be doing.

Of all the campaigning or rallies with huge turnouts will not amount to much if the voters decide that it is too hot (or some other equally inane reason) to go out to vote. Also the disillusioned section of the middle class needs to refrain from casting a protest vote for a party which has no hope to win. Protest votes maybe cool in a student union election and not with the future of the nation at stake. BJP voter base should not only expand but step out in the hot sun to cast their votes.

Of course we also pray for a long life for Bhai Narendra Modi so that he can serve his country to the best of his abilities and that all of are part of this journey which our nation rightfully deserves.