My friend Swami told me about a town hall kind of meeting on Facebook which was hosted by Madhu Trehan. It turns out that Modi was to be THE guest but with the involvement of NDTV in the event, they tried to turn it into an American style meeting where all the aspirants for the top job answer similar questions and are judged by the voters. It is clear what Trehan and NDTV were looking at – an interview with Narendra Modi which would have been a coup of sorts, not to mention a TRP juggernaut with lots of advertisement money. The bigger question (for a Modi supporter like me) is what Modi gets out of it? By appearing in this kind of a show, the participants try to show who the better candidate is. But for a clear cut front runner like Modi, this is a lose-lose proposition. Once on the show, he would be at the mercy of his enemies i.e. the media. He would not be able to walk off the interview (like he did with that jerk Thapar) without sounding petulant. On the interview he would have gone up against an upstart trouble maker like Kejriwal and a parolee like Lalloo Yadav (Thank you brother Shashi Shekhar). Does Modi need to prove that he is better than Kejriwal or Lalloo? Needless to say, I was very happy when Swami told me that Modi had withdrawn his name from this event. But this raises a bigger question. Who is Modi running against? Why do the Indian media keep insisting that Kejriwal is a credible opponent to Modi or (miraculously) Rahul is more popular than Modi in TN even though the man is a walking disaster? They do so because the media needs to keep the drama alive and show that they are still relevant in this day and age of social media (where the candidate can directly connect with the voters – see our post http://thenethindu.blogspot.com/2014/02/narendra-modi-bypasses-media.html). What the media are really loath to admit is that Modi is running against himself. Now let us step back and examine the statement. We have two questions. Who is Modi running against? Who exactly has the power to stop Modi from becoming the PM? As far as the first question goes, is it Rahul or Kejriwal or Mamata or Jayalalitha or Nitish or Mulayam or Lalloo? Even if you take the rigged pre-election polls with a fistful of salt, you can safely say that Rahul will NOT be the next PM. Now who else can lay claim to the top job. For that we will have to answer the second question. The only thing that stops Modi from becoming the PM is a hung parliament when one of the vulture-like politicians will swoop in by favorably positioning themselves. This is what Nitish, Jayalalitha and others are hoping. How can Modi stop that from happening? Effective campaigning is the key. Modi has honed this skill in the last three elections in Gujarat where he went up against a tsunami of negativity and still won. He has to be the most vetted politician on the earth so he has nothing to hide. All he needs to do is to connect with those voters who have either not heard about him or are reluctant to vote for him because he belongs to BJP (please read http://thenethindu.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-quandary-of-supporting-modi-but-not.html). From what we are seeing, the man is running an unprecedented campaign with targeted speeches and fantastic oratory. For a while it looked like his own partymen would impede his progress but he has since bested them. He now seems to be going from strength to strength. If he continues on this path then the figure of 272 can be achieved without making Faustian pacts. If he stumbles now or makes a bad decision then things can become uncertain. Only Modi can stop Modi. Yes it truly is Modi versus Modi in the next election.
It is not enough to form the next government for BJP. They have to do so in a way that was much better than Atalji’s government. It was a motley crew or parties who used Atalji’s government like an ATM. Unscrupulous partners like Chandrababu Naidu (who abandoned BJP and now trying to worm his way back) held the central government at ransom. In a situation like that, most of the time and energy was spent keeping these disparate parties happy. Governance became a secondary issue. The nation can’t afford a repeat of that. Akali Dal and Shiv Sena are ideological partners of the BJP and thus can always be counted on. Which why even after all the posturing, the three parties stood together once the campaign began. Now in an ideal world the BJP alone would cross the 272 mark because that would free up Bhai Narendra’s hands to implement his vision of India. That is why they are running the 272+ campaign. The seats brought in by SAD and SS would be added benefit. Next best thing would be that BJP+SAD+ exceed 272 since the other two are ideologically committed to the same goal. The aforementioned scenarios are desirable but difficult as of today’s date. Even if you draw a fuzzy conclusion by the pre-election polls (which have been shown to be extremely compromised), the BJP+SAD+SS look to be hovering around 225. Even if you counted the TDP with 10 seats and LJP with 4 seats, we are still ways away from the goal. If this were the case in May then Modi will form the government but with the help of either Mamata Aapa (didi in Urdu) or Jaya Amma or both. This will be a repeat of Atalji’s government. These women are unpredictable and mercurial ergo disastrous for stability. What we need (if we absolutely have to) are people like Paswan and Naveen Patnaik whose greed for power makes them predictable and controllable or K Chandrasekhar Rao of Telangana Rashtra Samiti who would need constant help from the Central Government for the new state. These three will probably bring in close to 30 seats. Now if the BJP+SAD+SS get 250+ then we can have a stable government. Therefore barring the ideal situation, the BJP+SAD+SS really need to hit the 250 mark. Seeing the way, Bhai Narendra Modi is campaigning, I have great hopes. His rallies and unfolding strategies in various states tell me that they are on top of all the issues which is a remarkable change from 2004 and 2009 when hope and entitlement were the BJP’s strategy. All we need is a good voter turnout.
One of the most confounding of the stats in these days of stat attacks is the high percentage of voters’ support for Narendra Modi and low support for the BJP in some states. In a presidential style of democracy it makes sense. However in a parliamentary system, it is impossible. Be that as it may, it certainly says a few things about the status quo. I will try collating my thoughts on the matter a way out of this. 1. The lack of support for the BJP even in the face of extreme anti incumbency tells you the abject lack of leadership in the BJP during the last ten years of LK Advani. His entire tenure was to let regional parties thrive under the assumption that they would come back the NDA fold when needed. He left the states to selfish and incompetent leaders in charge of states in exchange for their loyalty while he trying to position himself for the right place and right time. 2. Are the voters confused about our parliamentary system where you have to vote for the party to get the PM. A rather large number of polled voters support regional parties in the general election but want Modi as PM. Either they are confused about our system or their regional aspirations trump any national considerations. These voters are going to handicap the next government by denying a clear majority to a possible Modi government which would hamper implementation of decisions, tough or otherwise, essential for our future. 3. The solution to this quandary may lie in careful marketing. They need to see Narendra Modi in person on stage adorned by BJP paraphernalia, with local BJP leaders. This association may force the realization that the man and the party are inseparable even though he is running a presidential style campaign. With one moth remaining, this may be easier said than done. However, Modi and his team of brilliant organizers and campaigners have organized very large number of campaign rallies across the nation. It remains to be seen if the rallies of the past and future will any and all doubts about Modi and the party he belongs to.
Try to imagine CM Narendra Modi in pre-internet days trying to get the word out about his performance, good governance and abilities to the rest of the country. He would have been helpless in the face of a combined attack from Congress Bureau of investigation, the pseudo-secular leftist media and the NGOs with equally nefarious agendas. Yes in pre-internet days, Congress would have easily destroyed Narendra Modi. In those days, the media vultures would shoot off whatever popped into their petty little heads with no fear of a rebuttal. As long as they went along with whatever Congress was doing they had all the power and absolutely no responsibility. It was only during emergency period when some honest and objective journalists took on Indira Gandhi and her machine that they found themselves at the receiving end. I knew a journalist who suffered in those days. He was a man of character and cast iron spine who was a leftist but the kind you have to admire. The journalists these days are leftist only in name. Otherwise they criminally unscrupulous about money (Sanghvi and Barkha Dutt involved in the 2G scam is just one example). These so called star journalists have the morals of sleazy lawyer. Coming back to the arrogant attitudes of Indian media mavens, even today they shoot off absurd and low class tweets about Hindu nationalists and conservatives (read anything by that despicable couple Rajdeep Sardesai and Sagarika Ghose). They used to get away with anything. Not anymore. As we have said repeatedly on this blog, the Internet has been a great equalizer. Any person with a camera phone and a social media account is a journalist. When the Congress tried to host controlled media appearances of Rahul Gandhi, these cell phone journalists exposed the truth about him. In the internet age of social media, trends, instant opinion poll and instant responses and rebuttals by anyone with internet access has forced the media vultures into some accountability. Sagarika Ghose’s vitriolic tweets are matched with equal if not more vitriol. Congress snobs who would indulge in all kinds of name calling without expecting any rebuttal are beating a hasty retreat. One of the knocks on the saffron supporter was that they were part of a vernacular speaking unsophisticated silent but subservient majority. Not anymore. This is what Narendra Modi who is clearly a visionary, realized early on. He saw the advantages of the social media and built an enviable network with dedicated supporters. Even though he is less educated in these areas than the likes of Arvind Kejriwal or Sam Pitroda, he has used this platform and the technology to the envy of many experts. The biggest advantage for Modi was that with this platform he would directly connect with the voters, completely bypassing the media pimps and their biases. It is thanks to this approach that Modi was able to deal with ten years of incessant attacks by various pro-Congress groups and agencies and still win three terms with comfortable majority. And if all this was not enough to convince you of his absolute mastery over the new technology he pulls out another trick out of the bag. To appreciate the brilliance of the “Chai pe Charcha”, you have to view it along with the much touted Janata Darbar that the much more qualified IIT educated engineer Arvind Kejriwal held. You remember that the darbar was a colossal flop and Kejriwal had to flee the venue. A much more cost effective, efficient and safe way was demonstrated by the Chai pe Charcha campaign where the use of internet and teleconferencing Modi could not only talk with real voters but also field very relevant and clearly spontaneous questions. This is even better than the elections in the west where candidates go out to public places and meet up with voters or hold those town hall meetings. I am sure this will get emulated in the west very soon. Modi has found a way to bypass the media and directly connect with the voters. Now connecting the two is the job of the media but because of their biases, they could never do so in a fair manner. Modi has taught them a lesson. He is fielding tough questions by real people instead of made up, agenda driven media interlocutors. Maybe now Sagarika Ghose can shut up about Modi’s reluctance to be interviewed. Two of our posts on related topics can be read at: http://thenethindu.blogspot.com/2011/01/indian-media-vs-internet-hindus.html http://thenethindu.blogspot.com/2013/12/congress-media-vultures-vs-saffron.html
In authoritarian regimes or cults or religions (the kind that grow by conversions) or personality based political ideologies the importance of the person in charge or the fount of message / ideology is paramount. Since the leaders or the messengers (as much as we would like to believe in their divinity) are human and thus beset with usual follies, perception of their abilities or their strength becomes a substitute. Therefore in establishing their rule or reign as the case maybe, the battle of perception becomes very important. AAP is one of those personality based political cult led by their supreme leader Arvind Kejriwal. For the outsider who has followed this man since the Anna Hazare movement, he is no more than a political Arundhati Roy. What I mean is that just like her, he likes to stay in the limelight, usurping other people’s agenda. She stood next to Medha Patkar usurping her agenda. This man has done the same to Anna Hazare. In that way he is a selfish credit hog. If it weren’t for Hazare, no one would know this guy. In his course to where he is now, he has lied, made false promises (even a bad student at the IITs knows what is feasible and what is not. Believe me. I was one), made so many u-turns that even he does not know which direction is he facing. He has lied about his job (if he were such a crusader in the IT department, he would be suffering like Ashok Khemka instead of playing a crusader) plagiarized a book ( as accused by Ajay Pal Nagar), used influence (the very VIP culture he pretends to loathe) to stay in New Delhi instead of getting transferred, compromised on so many things (like getting support of Congress and in the process turning a blind eye to the sins of Dixit and Vadra). For people who are not under his spell, his administration has done nothing but dharnas and vigilantism. Now if we can see this entire spectrum of deception and ineptitude then why can those who are supporting him and joining him see the same? That is the bigger question. Who are all these lemming like followers and why are they supporting a losing cause and hell bent on wasting their votes? These people are angry citizens who have seen nothing but corruption and ineptitude from the Congress government in the last ten years and they are tired of it. So are we. They want a change. So do we. They want a clean performing government. So do we. However, our approach to the change is where we differ. These people hold the BJP in equal contempt. Well, we BJP supporters were not exactly endorsing the Advani led party either (which would explain his defeat in 2009 and the party’s defeat in several assembly elections). However, we are much more realistic about our political situation. We know that there are only two real options for India – Congress or the BJP. The third front is an alliance of parties even worse than Congress and in that voting for them is a waste of votes. We also know that an Advani led BJP would have been a marginal improvement over Congress. However, with Narendra Modi as PM, the BJP is a different party. Now the AAP supporters are pseudo-secular middle class Hindus (who would have been loath to vote for Modi anyway), ex-Congress supporters like Muslims (would not vote for Modi) or the poorer voters who want immediate relief (and thus fall for false promises). It is this band of people that Kejriwal is trying to attract and he is doing so with the same tools as people mentioned in the first paragraph of this blog. A man who lives in a house over a crore and whose family takes vacations abroad but wears yellow socks over plastic sandals in middle of winter is conveying something other than austerity. It is more in line with Lalloo Yadav who has cultivated a rustic look with a roadside barbered hair. The whole ensemble of Kejriwal's clothes itself is a statement in hypocrisy rather than simplicity. He and his gang have made it a habit of answering questions with counter question to evade their failures and to get out of tight spots. Their racist attitudes were masked with a self-righteous anger and political opportunism hiding their misogyny (support for the despicable Khaap panchayats). Their support for fundamentalist mullahs is nothing but continuation of Congress brand of politics. He has continued to lower expectations and bars of achievement to show progress. This subterfuge has kept his supporters in line and money pouring in (although if reports are to be believed, the NRI spigot has been turned off). Meanwhile the anti Modi media that have propped up Nitish Kumar in the past are doing the same with Kejriwal. Helping Kejriwal with his lies, they continue to prop him up as a Modi alternative. Why else would they show him as the third PM candidate after Modi and Gandhi? Now they are accusing the BJP of trying to bring down the AAP government by bribing their MLAs. A lie like this creates an unfavorable perception of BJP. Anyone who follows politics can see that AAP is on a self destruct mode and bribing the AAP MLAs does not yield any political dividends on the national level. This is typical of AAP, stooping to conquer. AAP is a mirage and perception, carefully managed by a smart man whose every statement is an exercise in deception and every move a self propagating sleight of hand and every act a shameless exercise in self aggrandizing. His shameless pursuit of power is being buoyed by the pathologically anti Modi pseudo-secular middle class and the English language media. Arvind Kejriwal is clearly winning the battle of perception. It is up to the Indian voters to stop this menace by casting their votes realistically rather than wasting their vote in a self righteous protest. A related article can be read at: http://www.niticentral.com/2014/01/16/8-lies-that-nailed-kejriwal-179886.html The article on plagiarism can be read at: http://news.oneindia.in/new-delhi/noida-based-writer-registers-plagiarism-case-against-arvind-kejriwal-1386445.html
We are witnessing Congress at crossroads. They are a party which is in dire need of reinvention. Current leadership has got to go. From the looks of it, 2014 elections are going to mirror Congress’ performance of the state elections of November 2013. They are not a challenge to BJP. We are also witnessing an implosion of the AAP. Kejriwal and his cronies stand exposed as garden variety Communists who are stuck in the student union mode. They have bitten the hand that feeds them (Indian media), suckered by Congress, disillusioned their middle class supporters by their vigilantism (word that should be used is “Gunda-gardi”). Now it seems that the NRIs have turned the money spigot off. They are also not going to be a threat to the BJP. The third front which is also a media creation like AAP and Nitish Kumar seems like a non-starter. Jayalalitha who was a supporter of Non-conversions laws has since joined up with Islamist parties and now CPI (M). This is a person who attended Modi’s inauguration has made a radical turnaround. Bereft of any kind of coherent ideology, she is nursing dreams of the PM chair. She and other regional party leaders are going to meet under the auspices of CPI (M) to form the third front. Apparently these people learn nothing from history and are going to repeat it. 2004 Lok Sabha was the best chance for the third front when the left front had 64 seats and Mulayam’s SP had 36 seats. Despite Harkishan Singh Surjit’s best attempts at reconciliation, they could not agree on who should become the CM. Now they have multiple leaders in their late sixties who look upon this election as their last chance for PM’ship. NO way are these guys going to agree on who should lead the third front. It is becoming increasingly clear that Narendra Modi is a rare politician; the like world rarely gets to see. Yes, the WORLD. In an election which is being held in a disparate country like ours with over 700 million voters, to have such a sway over the voters speaks for his political genius. His is an inspiring speaker with the organizational capabilities and decision making ability of a successful army commander. His success as a three term CM who has captured the imagination of the Indian voter has already cemented his legacy whether he wins or not. Now the real question here – Why would he not win despite of all these advantages? My theory is as follows. Complacency, arrogance and low voter turnout are going to defeat the BJP and stop Modi. We have so many polls coming out indicating the BJP as the front runner with 220 or so seats. With that many seats and opportunist politicians of other parties Modi will be able to form the government. Advani and his group ignored key states in the past. They assumed the support of BJD, AIDMK et.al. and let BJP become non-factors in those states. They assumed that with 150 to 180 seats and support of these vultures they will be able to form the government. This sort of complacency will lead to an inherently unstable government, susceptible to blackmail by unscrupulous partners. Modi will never be able to implement his pro-growth agenda. I do not trust any of these polls. It is not possible to get a statistically viable sample of the voter base in India. Moreover, with the kind of literacy and attitudes that we have in our country it is very hard to get nuanced answer (Do you strongly agree or somewhat agree kind of questions). And that is just one of the problems. The best we can get is an idea about the way the voter is leaning. It is also hard to trust any of the pollsters given the Congress’ and the leftist influence. Therefore one needs to be very suspicious of the projected number of seats because that can make the foot soldiers arrogant and stop them from doing their best. I am not worried about Modi because he seems to be going from strength to strength with every speech. He is fighting for every seat which is what every one of us should be doing. Of all the campaigning or rallies with huge turnouts will not amount to much if the voters decide that it is too hot (or some other equally inane reason) to go out to vote. Also the disillusioned section of the middle class needs to refrain from casting a protest vote for a party which has no hope to win. Protest votes maybe cool in a student union election and not with the future of the nation at stake. BJP voter base should not only expand but step out in the hot sun to cast their votes. Of course we also pray for a long life for Bhai Narendra Modi so that he can serve his country to the best of his abilities and that all of are part of this journey which our nation rightfully deserves.
Sunil Rajguru, who is a kindred spirit, has written an article which is in line with some of our own theories. He beat us to the punch and kudos to him. He has listed seven myths about the Aam Aadmi party. Here we are going to go through each myth and add our own opinion to it. AAP is in the league of Congress and BJP. Make no mistake about it. The Congress has the largest political network in India. Nobody comes even close. They have the maximum number or workers and loyalists spread all across India. In second place is the RSS network. RSS workers all across the country have dedicated their lives to serve their cause and the BJP piggy backs on this. The RSS-BJP network is the second largest political one in India. Both the top two networks have been as a result of millions and millions of man hours spread across decades and decades of hard work. The AAP network is gaining traction for sure, but could emerge as India's third largest network only in 2019. To place them in the league of the Big 2 in 2014 is laughable. The truth is that the AAP is in competition with the BJD, Trinamool, SP, BSP, DMK, ADMK… and it is conceivable that many of these parties will get more LS seats than the AAP. Sunil makes valid points about the existing networks of established parties. In my opinion, the AAP also can match or come close to the number of volunteers of Congress or RSS or BJP. However a large number of volunteers do not make an effective organization. What the AAP does not have at ground levels outside of Delhi is a structured organization with well defined leadership. They need to develop leaders at every level who can then manage the incoming volunteers otherwise they are going to have repeats of the disastrous Janata Darbar experiment. It has taken over a decade of good governance for Modi to be known all over the country. How can Arvind Kejriwal with no governance to show for or no other form of name recognition expect to make a difference in non-metropolitan areas? With that in mind, one has to ask this question – is the proposal of Kejriwal / AAP as a national alternative a trick to rattle the BJP supporter? It is quite clear even to the stupidest that the AAP can at best be a spoiler of sorts. Sunil also makes a good point when he says that the best AAP can expect is to be in the league with the regional parties. However, the regional parties have a united voter base due to their regional aspiration, myopic as they may be. However, the supporters of the AAP are a disjointed lot with only anti-corruption as the only major issue to unite them. Beyond that the AAP is nothing but another form of the Communist Party. When the middle class supporters of the AAP will be forced to reconsider their support when they realize the following: a. That there are other anti-corruption crusaders who are fighting it without making tall claims and in a more prudent way. b. That the AAP policies on national security are downright disastrous and following them will be playing in the hands of terrorists of all kinds (Islamic, Maoist, Naxals). c. That the economic policies of the AAP are regurgitation of Marxist policies which will take India back a few decades. d. That the populist moves made so far are a knee jerk reaction rather than well thought out policies. Has the AAP ever thought of who is going to pay for the freebies? e. That the pre-election statements of the AAP and the post election behavior of the AAP leaders do not match. Kejriwal swore on his children about coalition forming and here we are! His so called austere movements (followed quietly by other leaders in the country) are costing the taxpayer a lot more. Doing about turns is not unique to Kejriwal but he is the one who makes a huge deal about it and therefore comes through as a bigger hypocrite than the rest of Indian politicians. Moreover, all his bluster about going after Dixit and other corrupt leaders of earlier administration has been sacrificed at the altar of coalition politics. Nabbing meter readers and corrupt constables will solve nothing. Like them or not, Congress and BJP have a history and people know what they stand for. They know that voting for Congress means a repeat of the last (or lost) decade. Voting for BJP means implementation of policies that have worked brilliantly in Gujarat. However, voting for AAP means a protest vote. Indian voter cannot afford to waste their vote with the future of the country at stake. AAP needs to work for another decade and only then they can make a claim to be a national alternative. Until then they remain a rag tag outfit, fit only for hit and run kind of operations The picture is a modified picture from lighthousewebdesigns.com
Sunil Rajguru, who is a kindred spirit, has written an article which is in line with some of our own theories. He beat us to the punch and kudos to him. He has listed seven myths about the Aam Aadmi party. Here we are going to go through each myth and add our own opinion to it. AAP and BJP share the same voter base. The Indian middle class voted NDA1 to power and it powered the anti-corruption and anti-rape agitations. When Kejriwal was on the verge of launching the AAP, then there were a good number of people who loved both the BJP and AAP. But things ended there. The AAP adopted a Communist Manifesto and campaigned in the jhuggi jhopdis of Delhi. An example is how Kejriwal seems more sympathetic to auto drivers rather than auto commuters. The middle class is a pampered lot and have no need for freebies and are getting alienated from the AAP. Then there's Kejriwal meeting a cleric who issued a fatwa against Taslima Nasreen and Prashant Bhushan saying it's OK for Kashmir to separate from India: All that happens to be the exact opposite of the BJP ideology! The AAP will eat heavily into the vote share of the Congress and the CPM with whom they have great ideological similarities. There is some overlap in the BJP and AAP voter base. And this is what is feeding into the media frenzy. Both have supporters in the middle class. However, the great Indian middle class has subdivisions. We have the pseudo-secular liberal middle class who think they are above everyone else. This section of people stays in walled compounds passing judgments on those who are more in tune with ground realities. These are the people who are beholden to a strong sense of self entitlement and constantly demand special treatment based on their “connections”. To assuage some of that guilt (in my opinion) they often go out and support leftist causes. The second section is Hindu conservatives who clearly seem to have a better understanding of ground realities and are god fearing, temple going patriots. This section of the middle class Indians are dedicated BJP supporters and are not going to change their votes because the prejudiced and biased Indian media told them to do so. The BJP CAN break away voters from the former while holding on to their base. It is because as soon as these hypocritical liberals realize that the AAP manifesto is nothing but a Communist manifesto with a different name and those policies are going hurt them in the pocket, they will be forced to reconsider. The semi-urban and rural voters have no way to connect to AAP. Anna Hazare’s movement was of a different kind and it also had time to connect with small town India. AAP does not have time and have to behave like a political party rather than a movement. They will find it difficult to get similar support as they did in their activist avatar. Sunil is right in saying that the AAP ended up appealing to the same vote bank as that of all the non-BJP parties. Pandering to the Muslims removed any doubt to AAP’s plan of action. Now they have criminals from JD(U) joining the party. Is there any doubt that these guys are just another vote-bank political party and Kejriwal is another Nitish Kumar? The picture is a modified picture from lighthousewebdesigns.com
Sunil Rajguru, who is a kindred spirit, has written an article which is in line with some of our own theories. He beat us to the punch and kudos to him. He has listed seven myths about the Aam Aadmi party. Here we are going to go through each myth and add our own opinion to it. An Assembly success can be replicated in the Lok Sabha. Parties successful in one Assembly find it very tough to branch out nationally. Just because the AAP has been successful in the Delhi Assembly (people keep missing the main point that it came second and not first in the Assembly) doesn't mean it will translate into Lok Sabha success. The Maharashtra Gomantak Party, the Asom Gana Parishad and the Telugu Desam Party all have had greater Assembly debuts. But the party to consider is the BSP. The BSP saw spectacular success in UP but failed to go national despite both Kanshi Ram and Mayawati trying their best in other states and there being a readymade Dalit vote bank all across India. Delhi has the smallest of Assembly segments where an intense campaign can work. In comparison, Lok Sabha constituencies are huge and the AAP will have to fight it out for every single one. One other example that Sunil missed out was that of Shiv Sena. They have dominated the Mumbai politics for decades but have not been able to duplicate the same success at the state level let alone nationally. In Delhi, AAP’s campaign was aided by an extreme anti incumbency mood. The BJP did not offer any real alternative until the last moment (and because of that they almost pulled out a victory). AAP had almost a year to campaign and thus could hold those street corner meetings and a door to door campaign. Small size of the state and a homogenous, readymade liberal voter base helped them in garnering close to 30% of the votes. To replicate this model of campaign on a national level is not possible for already established parties let alone an upstart group like the AAP. In 2009, Congress spent close to 450 crores and BJP spent 250 crores on the general elections. Pragmatically speaking, volunteers and small donations cannot match that kind of money (I do not like the big money dominating politics but that is unavoidable). Kejriwal is their star campaigner (more so because the others suffer from the disease of saying the wrong things at the wrong time) and he went against a mild mannered Dr. Harshvardhan and maligned Sheila Dixit. On a national level, he will be pitted against Narendra Modi whose election rallies have unnerved even the Congress. It will be pragmatism versus populism. It will be vision versus lack thereof. It will be self reliance versus begging. It will be pride versus victimhood. It will be nationalism versus self loathing. It will be roaring self confidence versus whimpering self doubt. It will be “I am responsible” versus “You are guilty”. Believe me, if it comes to Modi versus Kejriwal, it will not even be a contest. The success in Delhi was a huge surprise to the AAP as well. That is obvious because the way their representatives were behaving after the results came out. There were not prepared for any eventuality. They had not considered all or any possibilities. Even now, it does not look like they have a plan. They are just winging it as the day goes by. Does this sound to you like a national party? No matter how hard the Indian media screams, a crow can never walk like a peacock. What worked in Delhi will never work at the national level. The picture is a modified picture from lighthousewebdesigns.com
Sunil Rajguru, who is a kindred spirit, has written an article which is in line with some of our own theories. He beat us to the punch and kudos to him. He has listed seven myths about the Aam Aadmi party. Here we are going to go through each myth and add our own opinion to it. You can win a national campaign within 6 months. The Congress was formed in 1885 and came to power in 1947. The RSS was formed in 1925 and the Bharatiya Sangh was formed in 1951 and they came to power in 1977. The BJP was formed in 1980 and came to power in 1996. Even being a credible Opposition is not easy. The CPI was formed in 1925. C Rajagopalachari was our first Governor General in 1948 but his Swatantra Party formed in 1959 took 8 years to become the principal Opposition in 1967. No party can conquer a large, rich diverse country as India in a matter of months. And Kejriwal is no Mahatma Gandhi or Jawaharlal Nehru. Right again but Sunil does not mention one thing i.e. the change in the national polity with regional and caste-based aspirations overtaking national interests. Congress and Bhartiya Janasangh are two different pre-independence ideas, largely agreeing on the national interest issues. Now the regional parties often force Indian strategies. When talking to important neighbors like Sri Lanka and Bangla Desh, the GoI has to defer to the CM’s of Tamilnadu and WB respectively. Caste lines have become much sharper. It will be hard for any party to form government at the center on their own. The best one can hope is to cross a certain 200+ seat magic mark after which post poll alliance formation becomes easy. AAP whose power base is Delhi is not projected to win more than a couple of seats in New Delhi where the voters are a lot more homogenous than the rest of the nation. I do not see them winning any seats in Mumbai where the contest is going to be multi cornered with regional and caste lines sharply drawn. As Sunil says, a party will need a charismatic leader who can galvanize the country behind him or her to make a case for national prominence in six months. Kejriwal does not fit that bill. The reason why the AAP is getting so many volunteers (the numbers are being overstated by the media in that you have to compare the AAP supporters with let’s say the NaMo brigade to get the feel for AAP momentum) is because undecided liberal voters have decided to club Congress as well as the BJP together as part of the establishment. By going to AAP, they are trying to vote against establishment. In a way they are right. The BJP has so far done a few things that are quite similar to Congress in parts. Propping up Vijay Goel was a BJP establishment move. Rajnath Singh / Narendra Modi who are outsiders brought in Dr. Harshvardhan and immediately changed BJP’s fortunes in Delhi. There were four seats in Delhi that the BJP lost by less than a total of 2000 votes. The point is that with Modi’s induction, the BJP is no longer Advani’s party and can now claim to be the party that they set out to be. Voting for Modi is no longer a vote for the status quo. Sooner or later Kejriwal will have to hit the campaign trail to make a national case for AAP. He will have to talk about his vision of India (which he claims to lack) and real solutions to serious problems. While Modi has chalked out plans that have already worked and are implementable nationally, Kejriwal will have to say Lokpal as an answer to all the problems. He will be exposed. He needs a lot more than just protest votes to win. Not only does he lack the charisma and oratory of Modi but his message in extremely one dimensional. In short, the AAP does not have the requisite stuff to make a national case for them. The picture is a modified picture from lighthousewebdesigns.com
Sunil Rajguru, who is a kindred spirit, has written an article which is in line with some of our own theories. He beat us to the punch and kudos to him. He has listed seven myths about the Aam Aadmi party. Here we are going to go through each myth and add our own opinion to it. Excess media exposure will help Kejriwal. Excess media exposure on Modi boosted his chances for the PM's post. Using this logic, the mainstream media is giving excess exposure to Kejriwal and saying it will do the same thing for him. That's a dubious thought process and by that logic head honcho Tarun Tejpal would have won any election hands down a week after the scandal broke down. Modi has been CM for more than a decade now, Gujarat has a string of achievements, the Godhra witch hunt backfired and he has given dozens of speeches with lakhs of participants: All that has resulted in this widespread media coverage. Kejriwal in contrast is sitting in much more modest foundations. Also, if you notice, then the AAP has already started getting a lot of bad press of late and it may all ultimately backfire. The media coverage that Modi got should have destroyed him. After all he has been the whipping boy of every media outlet, NGO, any organization with a leftist / liberal bent and of course the CBI, judiciary and an assortment of corrupt policemen. He is probably the most vetted politician in the world. The fact that he is still standing is a testament to the man’s integrity and honesty. After he vanquished his detractors in BJP and got the nomination for PM candidate, Modi has launched a series of public rallies. Social media and Internet conservatives created enough buzz that there are a curiosity in the Indian voter. That coupled with Gujarat’s progress has attracted “Kumbh Mela” sized rallies. In these rallies, Modi has put forth his case in front of the voters in a manner we are not used to. A clear cut vision of India, clear cut understanding of the local problems, logical and implementable solutions and stating his accomplishments with wit and confidence behooving a statesman has made him the frontrunner. The publicity that he has received in the media is reluctant at best. On the contrary, the media attention given to Kejriwal is akin to that of s desperate fan with no team to support. After Nitish Kumar’s political demise, India media needed a Non-Modi. Congress’ machinations gave them Kejriwal. Since then he has been portrayed as the only honest and austere politician known to India (ignoring so many accomplished leaders who do on a daily basis what Kejriwal is trying to do now). However, with excessive media coverage comes with a down sight. These guys have to keep their game faces on all the time. Rakhi Birla gets upset with a young boy, it gets captured on camera. Kumar Bishwas picks his nose and that gets posted on the internet. Prashant Bhushan repeats his stand on Kashmir and does not get a pass this time. Kejriwal is caught on camera confessing that he does not have the knowledge or the vision to run Delhi (and he wants to become the PM?). I am quite sure that he would have chosen his words more carefully if he were to express the same sentiments. These guys are not politicians and more often than not will say the wrong things. Yes. Excessive media coverage is a double edged sword and Kejriwal and co are going to find it sooner than later. The picture is a modification of a picture from lighthousewebdesigns.com
Sunil Rajguru, who is a kindred spirit, has written an article which is in line with some of our own theories. He beat us to the punch and kudos to him. He has listed seven myths about the Aam Aadmi party. Here we are going to go through each myth and add our own opinion to it. High profile people make a difference. A list of industrialists and celebrities are joining the AAP, but the truth is that they may not be even to win their respective LS seats let alone expand the AAP voter base. Celebrities are fine if you want to launch an international NGO but may be a disaster politically. Sunil is on the money here as well. Leftist journalists who are joining the AAP are rabble rousers and experts at attacking. But they will not be able to defend the AAP party stand or record (as small as it maybe). In fact the very nature of everyone who is in the AAP is that of a protester who is good at formulating the problem but lack the vision and the knowledge to find the solution (as Kejriwal himself has suggested). Case in point is Mamata Bannerjee. She brought down the communist citadel which is an exemplary feat. We all admired her for that. In austerity none can beat her. Personally an extremely honest person, has been a total disaster as the CM. She cannot accept any blame let alone learn from them. Kejriwal is saying the right things right now but indications are that he may not be able to withstand a crisis. Celebrities can be vote-getters but mostly are liabilities. The industrialists who seem to be joining the AAP are going to have a hard time sharing the dais with avowed communists like Prashant Bhushan and Kejriwal. Also, these accomplished industrialists are going to be lost when they realize that there is no plan or vision or a narrative and the manifesto is a rehash of CPI or CPI(M) manifesto. Moreover, for every Ashutosh joining the AAP there is a Kiran Bedi joining the BJP. Sunil’s assessment is right on the money. The picture is a modification of a picture from lighthousewebdesigns.com
Sunil Rajguru, who is a kindred spirit, has written an article which is in line with some of our own theories. He beat us to the punch and kudos to him. He has listed seven myths about the Aam Aadmi party. Here we are going to go through each myth and add our own opinion to it. Congress support will help AAP. Who is using who? Is the Congress using the AAP or is it vice versa? That only time will tell, but the Congress has a better track record of destroying parties. It split the Janata Party by supporting Charan Singh. It brought down the Janata Dal government by supporting Chandra Shekhar. In 1998 the Janata Dal was totally destroyed at the national level. The AAP should note that the touch of the Congress is not the Midas touch, but the touch of death. We are in complete agreement with the theory here. Clearly the AAP is being used by Congress to change the narrative in the media and stall the Modi momentum. The support in Delhi is a tactical move. Kejriwal after swearing on his children succumbed to the lure of power and is now the CM. The quid pro quo here is that he is now going to steer clear of corrupt Congress persons. There seems to be a symbiosis here but as Sunil says, Congress is a destroyer of parties and people. They claim to be followers of the coalition dharma but at the end, the junior partners get shafted. Just ask Mamata Bannerjee and Nitish Kumar (who is still waiting for that special status). The vengeance with which the Congress went after Modi (who is the only one who has mounted a credible challenge against the Family) would have destroyed lesser men. The way Sibbal and company destroyed Anna Hazare’s campaign was downright cruel and ruthless. Kejriwal should learn how to sleep with one eye open. The moment AAP becomes a threat to Congress’ votebase, they will set out to destroy the AAP. From the looks of it (recent pre-2014 election polls) it may happen a lot sooner. The picture is a modification of a picture from lighthousewebdesigns.com
There is a theory that is making headlines about AAP as a foible for the BJP. For the pathologically anti-Modi Indian media, AAP "victory" is a godsend. They were on a lookout for the next Non-Modi after Nitish Kumar shot himself in the foot. Concentrated voting of the urbane Delhi voters and earlier lapses by the BJP (thank you Vijay Goel and his backers) gave 28 seats to AAP which even they were not expecting. This presented the Congress with an opportunity. Following the example of China which controls India by using gullible and stupid Pakistanis, the Congress is supporting Kejriwal and his government and hope that he can be used to stop the Modi march. At a cursory look, it is not hard to like Arvind Kejriwal. However a deeper evaluation shows that he is the Arundhati Roy of politics. Just like her, he has hopped from issues to issues, hijacking other people’s agendas. For a man who claims to lead his life like an honest man, it is hard to justify a Delhi based posting for nearly 20 years. His obsession with the whole chappal-topi-muffler look seems carefully cultivated for votes. A man who lives in over a crore rupee house should be able to afford a pair of shoes. His Aam Aadmi act is going to cost the Delhi taxpayers a whole lot of money than if he had behaved like a regular politician. He is not the only honest government employee or political leader in India but he sure poses as one. At the end of the day, he has shown that he is just another vain and venal man (he is venal in the same vein as Manmohan Singh). How else could he fall for Congress' dirty tricks? It is becoming increasingly clear that Congress is trying to minimize the impending damage and keep Modi out of PM's chair. To that end, they have decided to prop Kejriwal. Their logic is that Kejriwal and Modi being outsiders are going after similar votes. They fervently hope that AAP can take away seats from the BJP, keep their tally below 175 or so which would then force all other parties to support Congress just like 2004. The media stooges of Congress are playing their roles in the matter by feeding into the petty egos of the AAP leaders. But there are problems with this theory. a. With sufficient money, close to a year for campaigning, help from lemming like supporters and going against one of the most crooked state governments, the AAP could only manage 28 seats out of 72. They also had an impressive vote percent. However, the votes were concentrated would not yield corresponding dividends in seven seats in Delhi where similar voting pattern gives the BJP six out of the seven seats. If the AAP cannot do better than that in Delhi with aforementioned advantages, how are they going to be able to do well elsewhere? b. Minhaz Merchant in his blog says that the AAP would need 300 crores for a national general elections. I am sure that the Congress would not mind giving them the money but how would the so called clean leaders of the AAP justify that? c. Delhi was a purely three cornered contest with a very urbane voter base. The AAP finished second to the BJP. However, the Delhi is a microcosm which is very different from the rest of India. It is very urban, much higher degree of education and a very metropolitan mindset where caste politics is not as important as it is in the rest of the country. AAP cannot win in multi-cornered contests that are the norm in the rest of the country. Remember, the BJP vote base belongs to the BJP (as was evident in Delhi and can be seen in Modi rallies). With AAP in the fray, the fence sitting liberal middle class Hindus will have yet another choice. AAP will be eating into the pseudo-secular votes and not the conservative Hindu votes. d. This devious plan of Congress assumes a couple of things. They assume that the entire Congress cadre is willing to sacrifice 2014 just so Rahul Gandhi can make a case for 2019. It was one thing to bring Gandhi family back in politics to unite the party. It is entirely another unite the party for Gandhi family. Personal ambitions of the non-Gandhi stalwarts in Congress will eventually kick in. The second assumption is that the regional parties are also going to be in on the plan. While the regional parties may join up with Congress after the elections to keep the BJP out, the chances of a pre-poll understanding is slim to none especially knowing full well that the Congress never respects their regional allies and would sacrifice them to save their own interests. These regional parties have the same votebank as AAP which pits them against each other. Delhi has an insignificant regional party presence. A fight in a metropolis like Mumbai where you have Shiv Sena or the MNS or RPI or SP will not be as clean cut as it was in Delhi. e. AAP had close to a year to make their case to Delhi voters. Meetings at the “nukkad” or door to door campaign worked well for them because they had time and volunteers. The same approach at a national level is not possible because you need to connect with a much larger voter base quickly. TV and the mega rallies are the answer. Compliant media may help AAP but to hold such rallies, you need a strong organization and crowd pullers. Congress with all their money and organization could not attract anyone to attend their rallies because they do not have a charismatic leader. Even the TV stations prefer orators and sound bites for their TRPs. Does the AAP have an answer for Narendra Modi? f. In addition to the usual qualities, national leaders are the kind who can inspire and instill confidence in the populace. The only well known person in AAP and that too thanks to Anna Hazare, is Kejriwal. I was a reluctant Arvind Kejriwal admirer before all his recent faux pas. However even then I never thought of him as a national leader. He always came through as a student or a union leader who was good at protesting and putting forth the causes rather than a man with a vision. Right from the day of his oath taking and every day since, his actions and statements betray hypocrisy and a deep rooted leftism. Since we already have established Communist parties who have already espoused everything that AAP has put forth including giving away Kashmir, why do we need these new guys? Voters on a national level will see through this charade. Prashant Bhushan’s reckless statements and Rakhi Birla’s shenanigans with the cricket ball are indicative of a much deeper malaise which will get exposed even more with constant media scrutiny. Congress is a scared party because they know that the BJP’s new guard has a chance to win in 2014. They also know that the BJP will not repeat the mistakes of the past and Modi will bring about visible and tangible developments in the country. That means a bright chance of reelection in 2019. Ten years of Narendra Modi will destroy Congress and more importantly the Gandhi family. That is why they are trying every trick in the book. Kejriwal is just a pawn in their hands and he is about to find out what is it like to sell your soul to the devil for power. Meanwhile, the BJP need to continue on the current course. Modi campaign machine is firing on all cylinders. Any change in strategy or the narrative to accommodate this media / Congress hyped AAP threat will be a mistake. The cartoon is from niticentral.com
If welfare programs, Nehruvian economics, government interference via red tape were effective ways of governing then India would have continued to be the proverbial “Sone Ki Chidiya”. However, the last sixty or so years of the Congress rule bears testament to the contrary. States which have tried to break free of these practices have fared better than the nation. Maharashtra used to be one of those states but ten years of Congress rule has turned a once prosperous state into a non-performing one. Can’t blame that on the migrant workers from UP. Narendra Modi has turned Gujarat into the kind of state that conservatives all over the world dream of. Small government, un-intrusive bureaucracy, developed infrastructure have all helped. But where the system truly stands out is the non-welfare mentality. Gujarat government does not hand out doles and people do not expect it. People make the system work for them. Gujarat still has a lot of work to do but remember one thing – they are here based on their own work with no help and all the interference from the central government. States emulating the Gujarat model are showing better progress than the rest of the country. On the other hand we have states run on socialistic ideology (UP – Lohiaite system), West Bengal (truly leftist system) and other states run on confused hodge-podge methods. NONE OF THEM WORK. UP is being run by less than honest people. However, Bengal is run by probably one of the most honest leaders in the world. However, the state is being run into the ground because the only thing Mamata Bannerjee has got going for her is her honesty. Even if she were a little more capable then also she would fail because she subscribes to the welfare state concept. The current darling of the India media is an avowed leftist whose first actions are confusing even the leftists in the media. After all, someone has to pay for the free stuff. How different is Kejriwal’s plan different than freebies promised by less honest and non-IIT educated (or not educated at all) CM’s? One of the things that the media is praising about Kejriwal is the way he is pointing out the existing problems. That is something that anyone who is remotely aware of his surroundings can do well. However, the thing that is remarkable absent is any hint of a long term solution to the mentioned problems. If this man is the panacea to all ills then where is his vision for the future? Corruption free India is everyone’s dream but that is only the beginning. What does he plan to do after installing watchdog organizations? I have a feeling that we will have to wait for a very long time to get those answers. Meanwhile we probably have the most corrupt government in our history at the helm right now. Congress has been trying to implicate Modi in any or everything. The latest is the pathetic attempt of the snoopgate. Even with all the state machinery, media and CBI, the Congress has not been able to charge Modi with any financial scam. Now if they had been trying to do so for a couple of years we could have said that Modi is smart in hiding his money. However, he has been in power and in Congress crosshairs for over a decade now. Therefore the implication is that Modi is truly an honest man. Of course he does not make a spectacle of his honesty because he has real achievements unlike Kejriwal who can only claim honesty as his achievement. Again, I have a name for him – Mamata Bannerjee. We have a number of honest leaders. But of those only the non-leftist kind are performing well. Modi heads the list. My appeal to the fence-sitting voters is following – please do not waste your vote in protest. Evaluate your options based on facts rather than lies spread by an obviously biased media. The future of the country is at stake and cannot be trusted in the hands of populist opportunists. Vote for the man who has been performing honestly and well for over a decade. Your kids will thank you for it.
