AAP Is No Threat To BJP

There is a theory that is making headlines about AAP as a foible for the BJP. For the pathologically anti-Modi Indian media, AAP "victory" is a godsend. They were on a lookout for the next Non-Modi after Nitish Kumar shot himself in the foot. Concentrated voting of the urbane Delhi voters and earlier lapses by the BJP (thank you Vijay Goel and his backers) gave 28 seats to AAP which even they were not expecting. This presented the Congress with an opportunity. Following the example of China which controls India by using gullible and stupid Pakistanis, the Congress is supporting Kejriwal and his government and hope that he can be used to stop the Modi march.

At a cursory look, it is not hard to like Arvind Kejriwal. However a deeper evaluation shows that he is the Arundhati Roy of politics. Just like her, he has hopped from issues to issues, hijacking other people’s agendas. For a man who claims to lead his life like an honest man, it is hard to justify a Delhi based posting for nearly 20 years. His obsession with the whole chappal-topi-muffler look seems carefully cultivated for votes. A man who lives in over a crore rupee house should be able to afford a pair of shoes. His Aam Aadmi act is going to cost the Delhi taxpayers a whole lot of money than if he had behaved like a regular politician. He is not the only honest government employee or political leader in India but he sure poses as one. At the end of the day, he has shown that he is just another vain and venal man (he is venal in the same vein as Manmohan Singh). How else could he fall for Congress' dirty tricks?

It is becoming increasingly clear that Congress is trying to minimize the impending damage and keep Modi out of PM's chair. To that end, they have decided to prop Kejriwal. Their logic is that Kejriwal and Modi being outsiders are going after similar votes. They fervently hope that AAP can take away seats from the BJP, keep their tally below 175 or so which would then force all other parties to support Congress just like 2004. The media stooges of Congress are playing their roles in the matter by feeding into the petty egos of the AAP leaders. But there are problems with this theory.

a. With sufficient money, close to a year for campaigning, help from lemming like supporters and going against one of the most crooked state governments, the AAP could only manage 28 seats out of 72. They also had an impressive vote percent. However, the votes were concentrated would not yield corresponding dividends in seven seats in Delhi where similar voting pattern gives the BJP six out of the seven seats. If the AAP cannot do better than that in Delhi with aforementioned advantages, how are they going to be able to do well elsewhere?

b. Minhaz Merchant in his blog says that the AAP would need 300 crores for a national general elections. I am sure that the Congress would not mind giving them the money but how would the so called clean leaders of the AAP justify that?

c. Delhi was a purely three cornered contest with a very urbane voter base. The AAP finished second to the BJP. However, the Delhi is a microcosm which is very different from the rest of India. It is very urban, much higher degree of education and a very metropolitan mindset where caste politics is not as important as it is in the rest of the country. AAP cannot win in multi-cornered contests that are the norm in the rest of the country. Remember, the BJP vote base belongs to the BJP (as was evident in Delhi and can be seen in Modi rallies). With AAP in the fray, the fence sitting liberal middle class Hindus will have yet another choice. AAP will be eating into the pseudo-secular votes and not the conservative Hindu votes.

d. This devious plan of Congress assumes a couple of things. They assume that the entire Congress cadre is willing to sacrifice 2014 just so Rahul Gandhi can make a case for 2019. It was one thing to bring Gandhi family back in politics to unite the party. It is entirely another unite the party for Gandhi family. Personal ambitions of the non-Gandhi stalwarts in Congress will eventually kick in. The second assumption is that the regional parties are also going to be in on the plan. While the regional parties may join up with Congress after the elections to keep the BJP out, the chances of a pre-poll understanding is slim to none especially knowing full well that the Congress never respects their regional allies and would sacrifice them to save their own interests. These regional parties have the same votebank as AAP which pits them against each other. Delhi has an insignificant regional party presence. A fight in a metropolis like Mumbai where you have Shiv Sena or the MNS or RPI or SP will not be as clean cut as it was in Delhi.

e. AAP had close to a year to make their case to Delhi voters. Meetings at the “nukkad” or door to door campaign worked well for them because they had time and volunteers. The same approach at a national level is not possible because you need to connect with a much larger voter base quickly. TV and the mega rallies are the answer. Compliant media may help AAP but to hold such rallies, you need a strong organization and crowd pullers. Congress with all their money and organization could not attract anyone to attend their rallies because they do not have a charismatic leader. Even the TV stations prefer orators and sound bites for their TRPs. Does the AAP have an answer for Narendra Modi?

f. In addition to the usual qualities, national leaders are the kind who can inspire and instill confidence in the populace. The only well known person in AAP and that too thanks to Anna Hazare, is Kejriwal. I was a reluctant Arvind Kejriwal admirer before all his recent faux pas. However even then I never thought of him as a national leader. He always came through as a student or a union leader who was good at protesting and putting forth the causes rather than a man with a vision. Right from the day of his oath taking and every day since, his actions and statements betray hypocrisy and a deep rooted leftism. Since we already have established Communist parties who have already espoused everything that AAP has put forth including giving away Kashmir, why do we need these new guys? Voters on a national level will see through this charade. Prashant Bhushan’s reckless statements and Rakhi Birla’s shenanigans with the cricket ball are indicative of a much deeper malaise which will get exposed even more with constant media scrutiny.

Congress is a scared party because they know that the BJP’s new guard has a chance to win in 2014. They also know that the BJP will not repeat the mistakes of the past and Modi will bring about visible and tangible developments in the country. That means a bright chance of reelection in 2019. Ten years of Narendra Modi will destroy Congress and more importantly the Gandhi family. That is why they are trying every trick in the book. Kejriwal is just a pawn in their hands and he is about to find out what is it like to sell your soul to the devil for power.

Meanwhile, the BJP need to continue on the current course. Modi campaign machine is firing on all cylinders. Any change in strategy or the narrative to accommodate this media / Congress hyped AAP threat will be a mistake.

The cartoon is from niticentral.com