Samudra Manthan In The Pacific

A few things have happened in the Pacific which seem unremarkable and expected. Their significance is revealed upon close inspection. I will list them for you.

1.China has become increasingly belligerent with its neighbors in the Pacific. They want all of the resource rich Spratley Islands to themselves.

2.They also want to control the sea lanes around those islands including the ones in Malacca straits. An Indian navy ship was bullied by the Chinese navy in that area.

3.They have abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s peaceful rise mantra. After his death, the leadership ceded a lot of power to the PLA who are now flexing their muscles, trying to take revenge on all who have slighted them recently or historically. Chinese rise is now anything but peaceful.

4.Japan has gotten over India’s nuclear tests and are now ready to deal with us even on defense matters.

5.India is an important defense partner with Vietnam, the country which gave the Chinese a bloody nose in 1979. Our “Look East” policy has paid good dividends.

6.Suddenly the Australians have decided to overcome their revulsion for us and sell us Uranium.

7.In a summit in Bali and in Australia, President Obama repeatedly asserted that the US was and is a Pacific power. He repeated it many times.

8.US has decided to open a US Marine base in Northern Australia.

Let me try to weave all these seemingly disparate events into what is about to become the new alliance (albeit a loose one). In 2000, President Bush and his VP proposed to revive SEATO (South East Asia Treaty Organization) which included countries like Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. A sort of the Asian NATO. It dissolved in 1977. The primary purpose of the revival was to counter any threats from China. After all, the events mentioned in points 1 to 3 are now exactly new. They just have become more obvious now. This time, India was to have played a major role. Unfortunately for us and the world, 9/11 happened and the Bush administration’s attention got diverted. The proposal died. Since then the Chinese behavior has gone from bad to worse. All their neighbors are worried to scared. The Chinese have spared no opportunity is confronting the US in the Pacific. It is as if the PLA WANTS a showdown with the US to establish what they perceive as their place in the hierarchy of nations. They are itching for a fight.

None of this is lost on the US who are still the biggest military power in the world. They realize that all of the Chinese neighbors are worried especially India. They are right. We are surrounded by Pakistan who is a Chinese attack dog, Bangladesh who is one election away from becoming another Pakistan, Burma who is already in Chinese pocket and the Sri Lankans who feel slighted by Tamilnadu politicians have accommodated the Chinese navy in the Hambantota seaport. We could use some help here.

Now why do you think that the Australians have had a change of heart about Uranium? I think that there must have been some pressure from the US. Why would the US want to help India? I think that Indian involvement in any new security arrangement is inevitable. After all, after China, we are the strongest nation in Asia. Without us, the dragnet around China will be incomplete. Does this mean we are preparing for a fourth world war? No. What we are preparing for is another cold war where we make the Chinese realize the wisdom of the Deng Xiaoping. The Chinese have way too much invested in the rest of the world to provoke a situation conducive to the fourth big one.

So what should we do? We should look back at the days of NAM and our international isolation. We should push the boundaries of our “Look East” policy. Since there will not be any formal SEATO like organization, the risk is next to nothing. As it is we are making defense pacts with Vietnam and Japan and that has not gone down the Chinese throats well. Might as well make more pacts of that kind. There is a quite “Samudra Manthan” going on in the pacific. I hope that Government of India would shun any noise from the leftists and join in.