How India might deal with China One keeps seeing heartburns in India about China “encircling” India, any day ready to maul India again like it did in 1962. A columnist moaned that India has no capacity to counter Chinese and Pakistani threats and cannot take sustained international pressure so much so it even turned the other cheek on 26/11 attacks also.
Let us look at this issue a little more dispassionately. What is the nature of the threat we are facing and are we completely helpless against it or can we do something about it ?
Looking at this columnist and other individuals covering strategic position of India vis – a – vis hostile neighbors, one is reminded of Sirajudaula's attitude towards the growing might of the “company” in 18th century Bengal. Constantly in fear, but also full of hatred and anger since he considered himself the lord and master of Bengal, he lived with a sense of impotent rage and hatred until the British attacked and de-throned him.
In politics, as in other matters in life, one has to be able to use the power of emotions positively rather than let them overwhelm one into inaction and then get steamrolled by the circumstances. In his time, Sirajudaula should have been to make a dispassionate study of East India Company's power, figure out ways of countering the power, if not on his own then by forming alliances, and, if there was no way he could have power enough to counter the British, figured out a way of coming to terms with the British in a way that would enable him to live a dignified life and also provide security to his subjects.
This is politics. I am not suggesting cynicism. Far from it. A politician must believe in good and he must constantly look for ways to advance the cause of whatever is good for mankind. The point, however, is that some amount of dispassionate thinking and action needs to go into management of political affairs rather than fear of others' power, then despondency then inaction and finally extinction.
In the present case, given that China is exceedingly powerful and menacing and it has formed an apparently unshakeable alliance with the terrorist state of Pakistan, what can India do ?
If we pull ourselves out of our despondency and want to ask hard questions, where should we start ? Here are the questions I would find hard answers to first:
1. Ask the army, preferably separately from more than one general, how long we will last in a conflict with China. I won't be shocked if the answer is far more favorable to India than it appears to naked eye. Conventional warfare is still much about logistics and those still favor India even with modern technologies. I remember seeing an analysis by an American military expert and he was emphatic India won't be as weak as it might appear.
2. Can India cope if war starts with both China and Pakistan ? How long we will last in such a scenario before we lose substantial territory to one or both countries ?
3. How will diplomacy influence the conflict ? In one on one as well as in one on two conflicts.
4. What can India do to prolong if not win the one on two conflict ? What can India do to make the cost of such conflict unacceptable to both countries ?
5. And the most important question – who can be India's real friends if a conflict indeed breaks out (or even otherwise). I will return to this question later.
To anyone despondent about India's chances in a “both border” conflict, I would like to point out a few things. One – Indian army has done the thinking. It has been going on for some years now. Recently Gen VK Singh said the Army is prepared for such a conflict.
Does it mean that India can hold it's own to both China and Pakistan ? Likely not. What the General perhaps meant was that India has a plan of action, presumably a detailed one, of how it will conduct the warfare in case both China and Pakistan set upon India in unison. Perhaps he means that militarily, the cost of such an adventure will be very high for them if they undertake such a venture. This itself should soothe our despondent friends a little.
Second, the diplomatic costs of attacking India in a manner like this will be immense for both countries. The sight of a free, democratic and un-threatening nation being attacked brutally is likely to bring unexpected support to India and is likely to make both countries pariah in the eyes of the world (not that Pakistan can become much more of a pariah). To be sure, these countries will be mindful of diplomatic angle and try to start the conflict in a manner as to make India look like the culprit. But success of carrying out an exceedingly delicate diplomatic maneuver has negligible probability.
So, is India secure ? Should we take it that the army is doing it's job and we can sleep peacefully ?
The answer is no.
The army likely cannot hold off for forever. They probably only have worked out a detailed action plan that has the best chance to delay the enemy advance. But even apart from that, there is at least one thing India can do. I return to last question in the list above. India can and should build lasting alliances based on shared values and interests. No, I am not suggesting Indo – US alliance. Indian and American values are similar only on the surface. The differences are deep. India likely does not have many whole nations or governments that will be real allies, the kind that Pakistan and China appear to be. But there are many forces that will gladly help India against it's enemies. Here are some of those:
1. Tibetans. Though India obviously is viewed warmly by those Tibetans who are here, there is no reason why Indian security agencies should not deepen stealthy contacts with native Tibetan population. From whatever one knows of these matters, this should be possible.
2. Nepalese Army. The ties between Indian and Nepalese army run deep. India should strengthen Nepalese army and form a deep, unshakeable alliance. If Chinese try to start a two front war with India, India could also be ready to lighten up all of the Chinese border.
3. North Afghans. Already love India and Indians. Properly strengthened, they will be India's answer to Chinese presence in POK. India should trash west's / America's desires and look to advance it's own interests. India should train and equip their army, build a strong civil society and if India faces two front war, then Pakistan will also face the same. And remember, India has “depth”, Pakistan has none.
4. Many south east Asians can become friends of India. India should particularly consider helping Burmese dissidents with a view to having them as long term allies quite like north Afghans.
5. Israel. Likely to be friendly towards India though it's strong ties with the USA will come in the way.
Politics is all about forming strong alliances. India has far more going for itself than we give ourselves credit for. The despondent columnist forgot that it was the USA / west that wilted under the pressure of India's nuclear posture and not the other way round.
But for us to advance strategically, we need to be playing the game. All of India, unfortunately, is not playing the game.
India is divided between those who can think of Indian nation as an entity and those who are so lost in the small, micro level battles that they have lost the larger perspective. Indeed, India's strategic position is weak because of unresolved internal conflicts.
That is actually a tougher political problem than handling hostile and aggressive neighbors on both the borders.
Let us look at this issue a little more dispassionately. What is the nature of the threat we are facing and are we completely helpless against it or can we do something about it ?
Looking at this columnist and other individuals covering strategic position of India vis – a – vis hostile neighbors, one is reminded of Sirajudaula's attitude towards the growing might of the “company” in 18th century Bengal. Constantly in fear, but also full of hatred and anger since he considered himself the lord and master of Bengal, he lived with a sense of impotent rage and hatred until the British attacked and de-throned him.
In politics, as in other matters in life, one has to be able to use the power of emotions positively rather than let them overwhelm one into inaction and then get steamrolled by the circumstances. In his time, Sirajudaula should have been to make a dispassionate study of East India Company's power, figure out ways of countering the power, if not on his own then by forming alliances, and, if there was no way he could have power enough to counter the British, figured out a way of coming to terms with the British in a way that would enable him to live a dignified life and also provide security to his subjects.
This is politics. I am not suggesting cynicism. Far from it. A politician must believe in good and he must constantly look for ways to advance the cause of whatever is good for mankind. The point, however, is that some amount of dispassionate thinking and action needs to go into management of political affairs rather than fear of others' power, then despondency then inaction and finally extinction.
In the present case, given that China is exceedingly powerful and menacing and it has formed an apparently unshakeable alliance with the terrorist state of Pakistan, what can India do ?
If we pull ourselves out of our despondency and want to ask hard questions, where should we start ? Here are the questions I would find hard answers to first:
1. Ask the army, preferably separately from more than one general, how long we will last in a conflict with China. I won't be shocked if the answer is far more favorable to India than it appears to naked eye. Conventional warfare is still much about logistics and those still favor India even with modern technologies. I remember seeing an analysis by an American military expert and he was emphatic India won't be as weak as it might appear.
2. Can India cope if war starts with both China and Pakistan ? How long we will last in such a scenario before we lose substantial territory to one or both countries ?
3. How will diplomacy influence the conflict ? In one on one as well as in one on two conflicts.
4. What can India do to prolong if not win the one on two conflict ? What can India do to make the cost of such conflict unacceptable to both countries ?
5. And the most important question – who can be India's real friends if a conflict indeed breaks out (or even otherwise). I will return to this question later.
To anyone despondent about India's chances in a “both border” conflict, I would like to point out a few things. One – Indian army has done the thinking. It has been going on for some years now. Recently Gen VK Singh said the Army is prepared for such a conflict.
Does it mean that India can hold it's own to both China and Pakistan ? Likely not. What the General perhaps meant was that India has a plan of action, presumably a detailed one, of how it will conduct the warfare in case both China and Pakistan set upon India in unison. Perhaps he means that militarily, the cost of such an adventure will be very high for them if they undertake such a venture. This itself should soothe our despondent friends a little.
Second, the diplomatic costs of attacking India in a manner like this will be immense for both countries. The sight of a free, democratic and un-threatening nation being attacked brutally is likely to bring unexpected support to India and is likely to make both countries pariah in the eyes of the world (not that Pakistan can become much more of a pariah). To be sure, these countries will be mindful of diplomatic angle and try to start the conflict in a manner as to make India look like the culprit. But success of carrying out an exceedingly delicate diplomatic maneuver has negligible probability.
So, is India secure ? Should we take it that the army is doing it's job and we can sleep peacefully ?
The answer is no.
The army likely cannot hold off for forever. They probably only have worked out a detailed action plan that has the best chance to delay the enemy advance. But even apart from that, there is at least one thing India can do. I return to last question in the list above. India can and should build lasting alliances based on shared values and interests. No, I am not suggesting Indo – US alliance. Indian and American values are similar only on the surface. The differences are deep. India likely does not have many whole nations or governments that will be real allies, the kind that Pakistan and China appear to be. But there are many forces that will gladly help India against it's enemies. Here are some of those:
1. Tibetans. Though India obviously is viewed warmly by those Tibetans who are here, there is no reason why Indian security agencies should not deepen stealthy contacts with native Tibetan population. From whatever one knows of these matters, this should be possible.
2. Nepalese Army. The ties between Indian and Nepalese army run deep. India should strengthen Nepalese army and form a deep, unshakeable alliance. If Chinese try to start a two front war with India, India could also be ready to lighten up all of the Chinese border.
3. North Afghans. Already love India and Indians. Properly strengthened, they will be India's answer to Chinese presence in POK. India should trash west's / America's desires and look to advance it's own interests. India should train and equip their army, build a strong civil society and if India faces two front war, then Pakistan will also face the same. And remember, India has “depth”, Pakistan has none.
4. Many south east Asians can become friends of India. India should particularly consider helping Burmese dissidents with a view to having them as long term allies quite like north Afghans.
5. Israel. Likely to be friendly towards India though it's strong ties with the USA will come in the way.
Politics is all about forming strong alliances. India has far more going for itself than we give ourselves credit for. The despondent columnist forgot that it was the USA / west that wilted under the pressure of India's nuclear posture and not the other way round.
But for us to advance strategically, we need to be playing the game. All of India, unfortunately, is not playing the game.
India is divided between those who can think of Indian nation as an entity and those who are so lost in the small, micro level battles that they have lost the larger perspective. Indeed, India's strategic position is weak because of unresolved internal conflicts.
That is actually a tougher political problem than handling hostile and aggressive neighbors on both the borders.
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