Dump Advani. Reinvent BJP.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Lal Jaichand Advani pushed Nitish Kumar over the top in order to cause the recent events to turn to his advantage. When the BJP leadership (Rajnath Singh) dug their heels in, the break up happened thereby reducing the NDA to three likeminded parties who believe in the importance of a religious identity. Now with a major distraction gone, the BJP can start their campaign. But it would seem that Advani has another card to play. As per the intrepid Sandhya Jain, Advani is now trying to get rid of Suresh Soni who is the perceived power behind Rajnath Singh and Narendra Modi. Here is what she writes in an eye opener of an article.

With Nitish Kumar formally calling off the alliance with the BJP on Sunday, June 16, the Advani coterie is working overtime to replace Suresh Soni as RSS coordinator with the BJP, as Soni is widely perceived as the power behind Rajnath Singh and Narendra Modi. Though some RSS stalwarts deny such a move is afoot, others say that the organisation did ask Dattatreya Hosbale to step in, but he declined. There is now pressure on sarkaryawah Bhaiyaaji Joshi to replace Soni.

Advani’s aides claim that if he (Advani) works out the post-election coalition, he should have a shot at the Prime Minister’s post before paving the way for Modi. This plan rests on two assumptions. First, that BJP will not win an independent majority. Second, that BJP will not be able to sew up alliances without Advani, and will have to give him veto power.

I have some thoughts in the matter but before that, I would like to point out that Nitish Kumar is going to come out of this a much weaker politician. Vivek Kaul after a lengthy and lugubrious (IMHO) analysis surmises the following:

So the BJP’s attempts to resurrect this issue (as it is plans to in Uttar Pradesh by appointing Modi’s lieutenant Amit Shah as in-charge of the party in the state) won’t really work in Bihar. Given these reasons, it will be difficult for the party to win more than 10 Lok Sabha seats from the state, on its own.

His logic is that the real reason for Nitish’s break up is that unlike before, he will not be able to stop Modi from coming to Bihar which will hurt his delicately held together vote bank (you really have to read the analysis). He makes certain assumptions but does not talk about Nitish’s PM ambitions which renders his entire article ( as well researched as it maybe) null and void. He also fails to mention the importance of Narendra Modi’s own caste (OBC) will play in the caste ridden politics of Bihar. Therefore his prediction of ten seats is a rather pessimistic one which Kaul has made to prove his point. I think that Nitish is will be able to prove a wafer thin majority and continue as the CM but he will cease to be an effective administrator because now he has an upset BJP and a vulture like Lalloo Yadav to deal with. I will personally enjoy ever misery this man is put through.

Coming back to LJ Advani, I have one question: What leverage does this man have other than nostalgia to demand anything from the BJP cadre and RSS? I don’t think that he has any leverage at all and people are just humoring him like they would an old man. Moreover, if you really get down to the brass tacks and ask Advani one thing: What have you won or enabled the BJP to win in the last decade? Wins in Gujarat, MP and Chattisgarh are due to their charismatic CMs. In fact, the rootless BJP leaders who are just sitting in New Delhi waiting for their turn have brought once powerful national party to this pass where it has become a “Super Regional Party” (Thanks Shashi Shekhar!). People like Ananth Kumar (who with Advani and Swaraj) destroyed the BJP in Karnataka, Swaraj who seems to nurse political ambitions but has no pocket of support, or Venkaiah Naidu who is our man in Andhra but our presence there is next to nothing. These people also have little more than nostalgia to back up their claims to their current posts.

Now the RSS may bow down to Advani’s Chanakyan machinations (if everyone knows about these then how Chanakyan are his machinations?), remove Suresh Soni and install someone of Advani’s preference. But there is a problem with this plan as well. What leverage does Advani have over RSS? Now even if there was some small leverage (old time’s sake kind) then what can the RSS do to Modi that they have not done already. RSS never liked Modi and we all know why. In fact they went out of their way to undermine him and in some cases hurt BJP to upset Modi (making that buffoon Gadkari in charge and then installing Modi’s bête noire in important posts like the head of BJP’s campaign in the last state elections in UP which they badly lost). If RSS now seems to back Modi then they do so very reluctantly and because they also realize that without Modi, the BJP has no chance of winning anything. Modi is a bitter pill that the RSS finally have swallowed. Now after all this, why would the RSS capitulate to Advani’s demands? It renders Advani’s machinations rather Quixotic doesn’t it?

The cadre based support that Modi seems to have (don’t believe BJP’s statements about it. Watch Congress’ reaction to Modi’s ascension and their desperate maneuvers since and you will realize Modi’s ground level support) and Advani does not also should be a revelation to all parties involved. BJP is not a dynastic party where seniority and family trump merit and ability. Even Nitish Kumar who is making noises to the contrary, sidelined George Fernandes. But I don’t think that any of this is getting through to Advani. It may be a hard thing to do but the time has come to fire him from the party as part of reinventing the BJP and making them into a national party from their current super regional party. Shashi Shekhar whose articles are published in niticentral.com (along with the Daily Pioneer, the only unapologetic conservative newspaper) and are a treat

“With too clever-by-half political calculations the BJP’s permanent Delhi-based leadership has timidly submitted itself to conventional wisdom that the role of the Opposition is to merely oppose the Government with rhetoric. This timidity has prevented it from taking sharp ideological positions on the UPA’s Left-liberal socio-economic agenda”.

“Three years later, in 2013 with the elevation of Narendra Modi, the BJP finally has found an anchor to begin the process of evolving as a credible alternative to the Congress. The marathon mission to get to 272 will not be completed by getting nostalgic over alliances of the past. The BJP needs to look ahead to future growth of its own merit. A beginning was made back in April when Narendra Modi took the arduous route from Shivagiri Mutt in Kerala to Patanjai Peeth in Haridwar, Uttarakhand as he sought to connect his political vision with local idioms and icons. It is along this trajectory that the marathon mission for 272 must proceed”.

It is obvious that there exists a dire need to reinvent the BJP and we either need a brand new leader with no allegiance to the old guard or someone who is associated with the old guard but is not afraid of taking on them and challenging the existing political dogma – an outsider. Modi model of administration worked well for Gujarat. There is no reason why it cannot work for India. It is imperative that the party put all the NiKu/LJK drama behind them and focus on the task ahead. It is important that BJP win, it would be awesome if they win with 272 or more. The first step has been taken in UP by Amit Shah in UP where he has asked the state BJP personnel that each voting booth be adopted by one person who then will be responsible for campaigning in that area. Shah himself is going to adopt a booth. That is the kind of grassroots campaign that had been missing so far.

The blueprints have been provided by Bhai Narendra Modi. It is up to the party to adopt it while getting rid of distractions. To that end, firing Advani from the party would be the first step.