This is what one analysis says about the recent election:The big story of the election is the three-way split in the BJP (B. Sriramulu’s BSR Congress, or BSRC, being the other breakaway faction), which hit it really hard. Our calculations show that had the BJP, the KJP and the BSRC fought the polls as one party, the combine would have secured 87 seats while the Congress would have got only 91 seats—leading to a hung assembly. The three-way split of the BJP helped secure for the Congress nearly 30 additional seats.
Would that have been better than the big loss? NO. I will try to explain.
Really poor governance and petty egos of men past their prime have brought the BJP to their ruin in Karnataka. Staunch BJP supporters like us are licking their wounds and listening to Congressmen of abysmally low character crow. People who stole from the handicapped have taken it upon themselves to pass judgment on an honest performer like Modi. All we can do is put up with it and take it on the chin. However, there is one thing we can do. Remember, every crisis presents an opportunity. I am going to put my thoughts down as best as I can (I am still very upset):
1.BSY did not perform and stole. It is immaterial that his theft is nothing compared to what Congressmen and their cronies have stolen. Theft is theft. BJP was supposed to be the party of difference. People do not see them as such. Poor performance and cronyism in the state was there for all to see. The rapists of Bellary, the Reddy brothers, their obscene display of opulence and their proximity to Sushmaji was also there for all to see. I would have had difficulty voting for these guys.
2.Caste politics in Karnataka is as bad as it is in the rest of the country. BJP leaders knew that while kicking BSY out. Especially seasoned veterans like Advani. While Advani and Swaraj have done things in the name of realpolitik, they decided to adopt the high road when it came to BSY. I believe Ananth Kumar was also in the mix of leaders who got BSY kicked out. Didn’t they calculate the power of Lingayat votes? They clearly overestimated Shettar’s ability to consolidate the Lingayat votes. This was a blunder and these three have to answer for it.
3.Bringing Modi in late was like trying to put band-aid on a severed artery. Man is brilliant but even he has limits. Because of Advani / Swaraj / Kumar’s arrogance and mistakes, Modi has to face heat.
4.Loosing this badly was better than losing slightly. With 80 to 90 seats, Advani / Swaraj / Kumar could have come up with any number of excuses (Advani has already started to crow that if they had followed his advice and fired BSY before, this would not have happened. It is clear that he still does not get it). But with only 40 seats, the only honorable thing for them to do is to accept their mistake and step aside. As it is, Advani is a liability. If he does not leave quickly I and a whole lot of others are going to start hoping that he is removed from the scene by nature. Swaraj is a good speaker but a lousy vote getter. She is not even a force in Delhi. Ananth Kumar needs to be fired from the party. With the fat-man Gadkari gone (the damage that buffoon did to the party is incalculable), the party would be better off without these three.
5.It is clear that BJP needs to clean house. They need to either bring back BSY or completely destroy him so he does not divide any more of the BJP votes. Since the latter is not possible, I suggest that Bhai Narendra step up and bring him back into the fold. Uma Bharatiji has already made gestures. I am sure that BSY also realizes that he needs BJP and vice versa. He needs to swallow his pride. If Advani / Swaraj / Kumar are removed / sidelined then no one in the BJP has to swallow pride and thus will be easy to bring BSY home. Winning the general elections is a whole lot more important than a state election. This exercise in diplomacy will also give the new BJP leadership an important lesson, which they can then use elsewhere like in Assam (where a pre-poll alliance with AGP would have defeated Congress) or UP (where they need to get Kalyan Singh and others like him to recreate the old magic) or Bihar (where they have to decide soon if they want to go it alone or keep tied to Nitish) or Andhra (same concern as Bihar) etc.
6.Since Bhai Narendra is our candidate (barring some huge setback) he needs to evaluate his own tactics. Clearly his speeches in Karnataka, while wildly popular, did not translate into votes. Is it possible that the so called internet Hindus who feel brave and dedicated while sitting on their computers, feel too lazy to go out in the sun and back their talk? I hope that is not the case. After all these guys helped the BJP in Gujarat. Be that as it may, Modi needs to re-evaluate his tactics. He has been fantastic in his speeches and has brilliantly tailored them to the audiences concerns. He needs to do more of that and hit the road in battle ground states like UP, Maharashtra, Andhra, Karnataka, Bihar etc.
7.We do not have much time left. The win in Karnataka notwithstanding, the Congress is in deep trouble. Even their pet media dogs have started to ditch them. General elections are going to be declared soon. BJP need to get the leadership issue resolved sooner than later. The foot soldiers need to know who their leader is. Judging by the reaction to his speeches even in a devastated state of Karnataka (BJP-wise), Modi commands respect from all levels of BJP. They need to declare him as the PM candidate so he can start drawing the war plans. This is a time to show a very united party where we do not have eighty five year old senile leaders who have had their chances, muddling up the waters. This the BJP’s election to lose. In fact if they lose because of leadership issues, I am going to have to re-evaluate my support to this party.
The analysis was taken from the following:http://www.livemint.com/Politics/dnbRQfEz0k4pIJRgBBVvAI/Split-BJP-hands-over-Karnataka-to-Congress.html
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