An interesting poll has come out in a magazine and then discussed in the e-magazine First Post, which says that Modi has a national advantage of 10% over Rahul Gandhi (In the chart, Modi is represented by saffron). It is not a surprise unless you think that Modi should have a bigger national advantage against a clearly inferior candidate representing and impotent and corrupt party. Since this magazine has suggestions for Rahul for improving his support, the article may be biased towards Rahul / Congress. What is important is that if a pro-Congress poll will downplay Modi’s strength and exaggerate his weakness. Based on that, let us analyse the results based on geography and gender. All other criteria may be important but it may be too late to change a lot of those (eg. Muslim or tribal support).
1. In the east (Bihar, Jharkhand, WB, Assam and NE states) Modi is ahead 55-45. This is a surprise because other than Bihar and Jharkhand BJP has no legs to stand on in this region. Maybe the poll-responders are differentiating between Candidate Modi and the BJP. This is very significant because a strong candidate Modi can make a good case for the BJP in Bihar, Jharkhand (already a base) and Assam (there is some support there and can improve with the right tie-up). In the Communist Islamic state of West Bengal (Can you really call it anything else?) any Loksabha seat will be a bonus.
2. In the North, the poll suggests a 13-point advantage for Modi. This means that candidate Modi can help BJP as they clearly have lost out to the regional players (SP and BSP in UP) and Congress (Haryana and Uttarakhand) in this area. This is going to be the key to BJP’s victory because BJP have won from this area in the past and need to rebuild their base. Without a significant number of seats from UP, no one can form the central government. That is an unpleasant truth. The BJP can regain their lost voter base if they start the campaign right now with the help of younger and knowledgeable local leaders. The old guard needs to be forced out as they have proven to be ineffective.
3. In the west (which is Maharashtra, Gujarat, Goa and Rajasthan) Rahul is AHEAD by one percent. This is a shocker indeed especially because Goa is too small to make a difference and in Gujarat, Modi has to be far ahead. This implies that Rahul is way ahead in Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Since the BJP used to have an established base in these two states, the implications are that work needs to be done here. I don’t know if tying up with the right party is the right solution or taking the case directly to the voters is the best way to go. Since recently Modi met with Sharad Pawar for 90 minutes, work has begun in that state. Rajasthan should not be too difficult because Gehlot has been a disaster in that state. It remains to be seen if Scindia will be an asset or a liability.
4. A bigger shocker in my opinion (the article does not think that way) is the advantage Modi has in the south. He is ahead of Rahul 55-26. This is big and has good implications. If Modi runs an American style campaign i.e. the candidate first and the party later then BJP will do well. In Karnataka, it will be a matter of reassuring the existing base. In Andhra, popular local leaders with Modi’s help can make a lot of difference. In TN, the BJP will have to tie up because of an extremely fractured polity. With Jayalalitha’s popularity waning and DMK mired in their own problems, Modi can re-energize AIDMK and maybe win a seat or two for the BJP. In the Communist Islamic Christian State of Kerala (what else are you going to call that state?) the scared and the angry Hindu voters can be promised good governance and their safety (their property, their women and their temples), then BJP may be able to open an account here. Just like WB, any seat will be a bonus.
5. Modi has a bigger lead amongst men (61 to 42) but a lot smaller in women (40 to 34). This is very important. Woman may have been relegated to a lesser status in these unfortunate times but they veil the real power if they harness it. I expect Indian women (especially housewives) to be a lot more rational of matters of good governance and development because they run the households (and thus handle money) and are lot less likely to be prejudiced based on non-issues like secularism. Modi needs to work on this demographic section because just like Obama, if he can energize women then he will win big.
It is clear that the responders have differentiated between Candidate Modi and the Party. This tells me that it is important to declare Modi as the candidate soon. The forthcoming budget session is going to be a tumultuous one where recent and older scams are going to make an appearance. Congress will be on the back foot. The regional parties are also in trouble either by non performance (Mamta or Jayalalitha or Akhilesh) or law and order problems (too many Hindu-Muslim riots in UP during the SP rule. Mayawati’s poor performance has not been forgotten). The Party should campaign where they used to have the base. A Candidate Modi can clearly help the party in other areas. It will be up to the party decision makers to decide who should campaign for whom in what region. That is a decision made easier once they formally announce Modi as their man.
The First Post article can be read at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/shockers-in-new-modi-survey-his-big-southern-advantage-and-gender-gap-629301.html
The actual poll can be read at: http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/nation/where-their-support-comes-from
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