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Saturday, December 8, 2012

FDI In Retail: No One Wins

Desperate to show an achievement, divert attention from numerous scams and impending defeat in Gujarat, the Congress followed the British taught and time tested method of divide and rule and got this piece of legislation passed. Anand Sharma and Kamal Nath cannot stop gloating about this “victory”. Is this really a victory? Who does this benefit? Why the hurry especially when the Walmart store will not open before 2018 when some of these Congress stalwarts may not even be alive to see it? Here are some points to ponder.

1. Bharti Electoral Trust is one of the biggest donors to Congress. Bharti group has partnered with Walmart. They are the ones who stand to benefit from this deal. This was crony capitalism at its worst. Since the chances of a Congress victory in 2014 is quite dim, the Bharti people may have leaned on the Congress to get this passed. Of course the US pressure cannot be discounted either. I think that the possibility of a loss in 2014 general elections caused the hurry.

2. The Congress paid scribes who have written in support of this deal have taken great pains into describing how this deal does not negatively impact anyone. Since when has “no loss” been a good reason to do anything? Clearly the Congress does not want their supporters knowing the real reason.

3. The consumers do not benefit at all. Walmart is a poor man’s store in the US. In India it will be anything but. Of course these stores will remain in upscale areas and thus will probably not impact the so “Kirana stores”. The aam aadmi will not get to shop with any degree of frequency in these stores. The target shoppers are the middle class Indians who have completely changed their attitude about money and treat their incomes as disposable.

4. The suppliers are going to get squeezed. Walmart executives are the corporate equivalents of pythons. They use their financial clout to run over, squeeze and swallow suppliers and competition. When Walmart started in the US, they bragged about an all American made inventory. Now it is all Chinese made inventory. As it is, the Indian markets are flooded with Chinese made crap. With Walmart at the helm, our small businesses and manufacturers are going to lose big.

5. I hope that the Dhoti clad entrepreneurs (a term coined by the intrepid Prof. Vaidyanathan of IIM Bangluru) do not get wiped out. They are one of the biggest employers in the country and any loss to them will be felt far and wide.

6. Coming back to Congress, they used the dirtiest possible tricks to bring Mayawati and Mulla-yam Yadav in line. Existing cases of corruption was used to squeeze Mayawati. Of course She does not want the general elections to move forward because she needs time to prepare for the next elections. Mulla-yam does not want to be seen voting with BJP by his Muslim voters. Of course, he needs money from the central government to make his election promises come true to the UP voters who fell for his promises. Akhilesh Yadav’s tenure has been an unmitigated disaster with almost one communal riot per moth of his rule. Of course, Karunanidhi will lay an egg if asked by Congress. So getting his vote was not a problem.

Congress may crow about this victory, which is pyrrhic at best. A huge number of small businesses are Muslim owned. Hopefully now they can open their eyes. The large number of middle class Hindu businesspersons who were stupid enough to abandon the BJP and voted for SP and BSP will suffer and rightly so. Of course the loss of credibility that the Congress will suffer after they railroaded every coalition partner will come back and bite them in this era of coalition politics. Who can rely on them? Pranab Mukherjee’s promise that the FDI vote will be unanimous has already been broken. Dare say that his supporters could be very happy. Of course the opposition has also been a loser. Mamta Bannerjee cannot team up with Congress or the Commies or the BJP (Muslim votes) anymore. The BJP continue to look rudderless but can treat this as a wakeup call.

The Congress can claim all kinds of victory but this has been anything but.

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