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Thursday, June 21, 2012

Is Nitish Kumar A Friend Of BJP?

Nitish Kumar says that he is not interested in becoming the PM. But his relentless attacks on Narendra Modi betray his intentions. He has been closely allied with the BJP which is closely allied with the RSS which has been blamed by the secular media for everything that is wrong with India. If they could blame World War I and II on the RSS they would. Nitish has had no problems with that because until now it suited his purpose. Secular media would have you believe that Nitish Kumar could win Bihar on his own. The numbers do not support that. An excellent analysis done by folks at centreright.in say have this to say:

In the 2010 election, the two parties (BJP and JD(U)) together polled about 39% of the votes. RJD in alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP polled about 27% of the votes. It is conceivable that most of these votes can be polled by the RJD on its own. In terms of seats though the BJP – JDU alliance walked away with over 80%. Congress which ruled state almost continuously from independence until 1990, polled about 8 % of the votes. In the event of RJD, LJP, and the Congress coming together and able to effect full vote transfers their total percentage will come to 35% Given the level of polarisation it may not have mattered much in terms of seats but the fight would have been much closer.

Simple fact is that in the event of JDU splitting from the BJP and facing an alliance of RJD – LJP – Cong, it will lose unless BJP’s share of votes is less than 5%. This certainly is not the case. Even without Cong an RJD with or without an alliance with LJP can make things quite hot for Nitish, if not actually defeat him as BJP’s own vote base will be more than 10%.

The Telegraph says the following in a revealing article:

These are faint dreams as the JD(U) hasn’t broken its ties with the BJP, which anyway has a much stronger organisation in Bihar than the Congress.

If Congress polled 8% and BJP is stronger in Bihar than Congress then it stands to reason that the BJP would poll much higher than the required 5%. Moreover, even if Nitish Kumar was a political juggernaut in Bihar and helped the BJP to the hilt in the last elections, it would still not explain BJP winning 91 seats out of 105 contested. Therefore, if JD(U) were to separate, you can almost bet that Lalloo Yadav would be back.

Then of course, JD(U) contested all the seats in the last UP elections and lost everyone of them including the ones in Eastern UP where it is likely that someone has heard of Nitish. He is strictly a state level phenomenon. The secular media is getting frustrated with the status quo but are scared of the alternative which is why everyone and their dog is trying to pump up Nitish Kumar. This seems to have gone to his head and he has started to fancy himself as a PM candidate. He will not shut up and continue on his tirade which is what the Congress wants. They are happy that the debate has moved from the most important issue for the aam aadmi (corruption) to an issue (communalism) which is manufactured by the incompetent secular buffoons and their friends in the media. If the next election is won by Congress because the corruption debate was replaced by a “so-called-communal vs. so-called-secular” debate, we will have to thank Nitish Kumar for that.

Nitish Kumar is a friend of the BJP when it suits him but is perfectly willing to behave like a crab (if I can’t escape the barrel then I will pull you down as well syndrome) when it does not.

Speaking of friends of the BJP, we have Brajesh Mishra giving us a vignette into his genius. The man who single handedly caused the Kandahar hijacking debacle (letting the plane fly out of Amritsar was due to a fight between the PMO and the defence) and should have been sued by the victims of Sheikh Omar (Daniel Pearl) and Masud Azhar (founder of JeM) has taken it upon himself to declare Narendra Modi an unfit candidate. It is a pity that men like him are still around and deemed relevant.

NV Subramanian has written an article where he ascribes to all this anti Modi tirade as a power play between Modi and all other PM aspirants like Nitish and Advani (I beg and beseech the RSS elders to tell Advani to shut up and move to Karachi).

Bringing Modi to the Centre means the full and final retirement of L.K.Advani and his generation of leaders. If they had a way, they wouldn't allow it. Then there are the ambitions of Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, etc, to consider. They have to work under Modi. But would they? Would there be sabotage if Modi is brought to the Centre? There is strong possibility of it.

The question to ponder is: With friends like these, do we need enemies?

The quotes in the post are from the following articles:

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