Clear And Present Danger To India

In non-democratic nations, governments in peril usually start something to divert the attention of the population. This enables them to validate their hold on power. The day Kim Jong Il died, North Koreans test fired a nuclear capable missile. This forced the South Koreans to go on defensive. That is one way.

We have two such countries in our neighborhood- China and Pakistan. Both of them are going through problems. Pakistan is dealing with their own security issues thanks to all the terrorist organizations they have spawned. Then there is the economy, which now has to deal with the possibility of the loss of multimillion-dollar “bheekh” from the US. There is the memogate, which has brought the fight between the civilian government and the army out in the open. Even PM Gilani who seemed to be an army lapdog is showing signs of dissention. Then there is that American problem where they are dealing with the drone attacks and the whole Afghanistan mess. It is becoming clear that the Paki army is not going to go gently into the night. They are going to flex muscles and establish their relevance to the Paki people. How can they do it without much effort? They can foment problems for India using the many terrorist organizations at their disposal. Even the prospect of a strong response from India would then send the pakis running to their saviors in the army.

As far as China is concerned, their problems larger because they are a larger country. Their economy which was bulldozing through seems to be slowing down because of a global economic slowdown.

For years analysts have warned of a looming real estate bubble in China, but the predicted downturn, the bursting of that bubble, never occurred -- that is, until now. In a telling scene two months ago, Shanghai property developers started slashing prices on their latest luxury condos by up to one-third. Crowds of owners who had recently bought apartments at full price converged on sales offices throughout the city, demanding refunds. Some angry investors went on a rampage, breaking windows and smashing showrooms.

The above is only one of the many examples of violent protest that the government has not been able to control. Another example is the farmer protest against real estate developers in Wukan. We are also witnessing a tectonic change in the security paradigms in the Pacific. The Chinese hubris is not going unnoticed anywhere and the world is preparing for the new bad guy. The PLA and the new Chinese leadership are itching to flex their muscles. That desire coupled with a strong need to divert the attention of the populace from domestic troubles could spell trouble for neighbors like India. I don’t think that the Chinese are actually going to march down into India but that does not mean they cannot ratchet up the tensions on some premise or the other (harassing our diplomats and traders could just be the start).

I hope against hope that the current GoI’s ineptitude does not extend into defending our borders. We already have surrendered to the Chinese in trade. Surrendering our safety would be an entirely different beast.

Analysis of the dangers from Pakistan can be read in an analysis by Mr. B Raman at : http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers49/paper4824.html
An excellent paper on the China's financial troubles especially the real estate bubble can be read at(The highlighted portion is from the article): http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/136963/patrick-chovanec/chinas-real-estate-bubble-may-have-just-popped
Our own blogpost on the new hotspot in the Pacific can be read at: http://thenethindu.blogspot.com/2011/11/samudra-manthan-in-pacific.html
The picture is from http://www.tehelka.com/story_main50.asp?filename=Ws071011China.asp