BJP Will Lose In UP Elections

UP is the big prize for whoever wants to win in 2014 (BJP or Congress) or want to stay out of jail (Mayawati). As we have repeatedly written on this blog that no stunt will be cheap enough to win this prize. We are already seeing the evidence. Inevitably, there are reports out there which predict on which party has an advantage. There are polls doing the same. What is consistent in all those is that the big winner is going to be SP followed by BSP, Congress and BJP. My sentiments on SP, BSP and Congress are well known to the readers of this blog. For the newer readers-please read some of our older posts and you will see. What really bothers me is the BJP’s fourth finish especially because BJP owes both of their tenures at the center to the UP voters.

What is curious is how the BJP rewarded the UP voters. The BJP rewarded them with Kalyan Singh, RP Gupta and Rajnath Singh. Kalyan Singh was a capable grassroots worker with good deal of control over Lodh community votes (good ol’ caste politics) but nothing more. RP Gupta was a septuagenarian with charm, ability and enthusiasm of a wet sock. Rajnath Singh projected himself as the keeper of the Thakur votes of UP and has since exploited that into the post of CM of UP and BJP President. Despite of failing miserably at both positions, he is still around and playing the spoiler.

But that was then. Now all of the UP mess is on Gadkari. He is doing a poor job of projecting leaders in UP. He has consistently antagonized the BJP superstar i.e. Bhai Narendra Modi and nominated his bête noire as the in charge of UP elections- a man who is alien to UP politics. Gadkari could have used Modi’s help in campaign as has been desired by UP’s local leaders but he has chosen not to. He brought in Uma Bharati which was a very good move but it was too late. But as Mr. NV Subramanian writes in his article that:

But Uma Bharati can be a huge political mover. She doomed the Congress in Madhya Pradesh. Her problem is that the campaign is being pulled in other directions by other UP BJP heavyweights, including Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra. Objectively speaking, neither Rajnath Singh nor Kalraj Mishra is a match for Uma Bharati, who is hungry to prove her worth to the BJP. If Mayawati has a worth contender, it is Uma Bharati. But the BJP in UP is a case of "Too many cooks...."

Ultimately it is going to be egos of people like Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra which is going to sink the BJP. The responsibility of keeping such people falls on the shoulder of Gadkari who seems to be playing the Advani camp versus the Vajpayee camp games. Gadkari should have projected a young dynamic leader from the beginning and sought the help of star campaigners to win the state. Instead he is running the show like UP is just another state that the BJP has no shot of winning. If the BJP cannot defeat someone like Mayawati then they should just pack it in for the 2014 elections as well. After all, other than the CM’s of the BJP ruled states, none of their leaders inspire any confidence.

Missed opportunity
At one level, you would think both the BJP and Congress are reconciled to defeats in Uttar Pradesh, and are content to compete for the third and fourth spots. If that is so, it is sad. The backwardness of the so-called cow belt but particularly UP partly drags India down. If either of the two national parties had a spell of power in UP, it would do the state and the country good. And only Uttar Pradesh has the singular capacity to end the interminable cycle of weak and visionless coalition rule at the Centre.

The article can be read at:http://newsinsight.net/archivedebates/nat2.asp?recno=2233