The always on the money and connected NV Subramanian in his latest analyses the by-poll debacle of the Congress. He lays the complete blame on the top tier leadership of Congress i.e. Sonia Gandhi. That her only qualification is marrying the right guy is only obvious to non Congress voters and workers. Expecting her to lead a country as complex as ours is asking for the moon. There are many interesting points made in the article. One is that Congress is that internal party reports about forthcoming elections in UP are gloomy. Another one is that Digvijay Singh has already started to distance himself from the Gandhi family (he has denied being close to Rahul). But we all know this man is a rat and a political survivor. However the most important thing in the article which really caught my eye is the following statement:The BJP showed the way of coming to power by forging a coalition. The Congress mimicked it and clawed its way back to government. As such, there was no innovation on the part of the Congress leadership to win power. Top ranking ministers like Pranab Mukherjee considered the 2004 victory a fluke. The 2009 win was a bigger surprise.
Think about it. 2004 victory as per Mukherjee was a fluke and 2009 was even a bigger surprise. What this really means is that Congress was never really expecting to win either of the two elections. By implication, both of them were for the BJP to lose! Taking a step further we can safely say that people who were in charge of the BJP during those elections are to be blamed for the BJP losses and sadly for India, for the Congress wins. We all know that during those days, the BJP was divided into two camps – Advani camp and Atalji camp. Atalji was on his way out due to age so Advaniji was the crown prince (only in Indian politics and Arab monarchies can seventy plus year old men are can be referred to as crown prince). He and his coterie planned the disastrous India Shining campaign. The BJP lost big time.
In 2009, UPA had shown themselves to be failures on multiple fronts. Advaniji, Sudheendra Kulkarni and others were in charge. Beating Congress should have been easy. Even the Congress were expecting to lose. As seems to have become their habit, the BJP snatched defeat from the jaws for victory. That is two major losses. Advaniji must shoulder the blame for the losses.
Now that UPA is in deeper trouble and early elections are a distinct possibility, Advaniji is smelling the PM kursi again. He has taken a rathyatra at the age of 84. It is nothing but a very transparent attempt at the top job. Let us say there are early elections. Let us look at the possible voters. The BJP is definitely going to get the votes of their faithfuls (or fat fools. It is beginning to feel like that) but that will not be enough to put us over the top. We will need the Hindu middle class who seems to be sitting on the fence. If they did not vote for then septuagenarian Advani why do we expect them to vote for an octogenarian Advani. Those voters may not vote for Congress but they may go an vote for the regional parties which is worse (can you imagine Karunanidhi as a king maker again?). So to attract those independent voters we have to have proven and younger leadership. Someone who can attract the older middle class voters who are worried about the country. Someone who can attract the younger voters who are worried about their future. Advaniji does not fit the bill.
In a conversation with a friend who is an educated liberal I found out that he would vote for Narendra Modi because he is very impressed with Modi’s way of doing business and the continued success of Gujarat. This friend is by no means beholden to Hindu nationalism and yet for the first time he would consider voting for Modi. Will he vote for Advani? That is the crore rupee question.
As I have said on this blog, the BJP owes a huge debt of gratitude to Advaniji for putting us on the map with his first rathyatra. But that was then and this is now. His time is past and he needs to understand that fact. Ambition cannot overcome the effects of age. In the last month or so, he has send out mixed signals about his desires. On one hand he hints that he has no interests but he has never stopped his chamchas from making noise about it. He needs to come out and categorically say that he is not a candidate instead of hoping that somehow the title of PM gets attached to his name. That sounds too much like Chaudhary Charan Singh who is one of the most reviled names in Indian politics.
Advaniji has to decide if he wants to become Professor Emeritus or take on the grueling task of day to day decision making. He needs to decide if he wants to accept the vaan-prastha ashram or go back in time. He really needs to decide if he want to be Bheeshma Pitamah or fight the war like Arjun. He has to decide all this for the party and the country. We cannot afford another Congress or some sort of a third party rule in the nation (how does Prime Minister Mayawati sound?).
The NV Subramanian article can be read at: http://newsinsight.net/archivedebates/nat2.asp?recno=2208
No comments:
Post a Comment